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Market intelligence
We run state-of-the-art analysis at high geographic and temporal resolution. That is what lets us anticipate trends, risks and opportunities in the power market.
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Our market intelligence
It lets our clients plan and commercially assess investments, evaluate risks, structure contracts and design commercial strategies on robust, precise and timely information. The analysis is run across different energy transition and regulatory change scenarios.
Our main services are:
Advisory for the financing of power market projects.
Market analysis for merger and acquisition processes (M&A).
Support to developers in sizing investments in the sector.
An investment decision in Chile's power sector rests on a revenue forecast. And that forecast depends on assumptions — how much curtailment there will be, how much capacity credit the technology will earn, how the marginal cost will behave at the busbar where the project connects — that a spreadsheet rarely supports.
This practice exists to produce those forecasts at the level of detail the decision demands, and to explain where every number comes from.
Some of the questions we answer
What will this project's energy be worth?
Marginal cost forecasting at the connection busbar, not at a representative system node. The difference matters: decoupling between the north and the centre-south can move captured price by tens of dollars per MWh.
How much of that energy will actually be injected?
Curtailment forecasts, by hour and by zone, under different scenarios for transmission and storage entering the system.
What does capacity pay?
Adequacy credit under the current methodology and under probabilistic methods, which give markedly different answers for variable technologies.
What if the scenario changes?
Sensitivities on thermal retirement, hydrology, project entry and regulatory adjustments.
How it is done
The analysis runs on in-house simulation models — AMEBA for operation and expansion, ABEX to project the works plan agent by agent, ARGOS for portfolio assessment — at hourly and busbar resolution, with stochastic modelling where uncertainty demands it.
That resolution is not a methodological luxury. A block-based model averages hours of solar oversupply together with peak hours and erases precisely the phenomenon that determines the profitability of a renewable project or a battery. When temporal detail is lost, the answer changes sign.
Galilei: the tracking does not start with the engagement
A forecast is worth what its input data is worth. In the Chilean power sector the data exists — the Coordinator, the CNE and the SEA all publish it — but it is scattered, in awkward formats and far from whoever has to decide.
Galilei is the data model SPEC maintains to solve that: actual operation, schedules, prices, capacity and regulation of the Chilean power market, over the full series and updated continuously. It is not a download made for the engagement: it is permanent tracking of everything happening in the sector.
That changes what can be answered. A question about how a busbar behaved over the last hundred weeks, or how the captured price of a technology moved since the first batteries came online, does not require gathering data: it requires querying it.
What it is used for
Three situations account for most of the work.
Project financing.
The bank or the fund requires an independent forecast before closing. The report has to hold up in due diligence, not merely support the developer's base case.
Mergers and acquisitions.
Valuing an asset portfolio under scenarios, with a range of outcomes rather than a single number.
Sizing the investment.
How much capacity, with what technology and at which busbar, before capital is committed.
Our work covers, among other areas:
Market forecasting
Marginal costs (spot price), the capacity market and ancillary services.
Commercial assessment
For renewable projects, hybrid plants and stand-alone storage systems.
Distributed generation
Stabilised price forecasting under different regimes.
End-customer tariffs
Estimating the cost of electricity supply for the final consumer, and assessing its risk.
A public sample
These are the documents from this practice that SPEC publishes. Most of the work is done for a client and under confidentiality: it does not appear here, and that is the rule rather than the exception.
Have a decision on the table?
Tell us what you are evaluating and we will tell you which analysis fits, at what resolution and on what timeline.
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